One in three consumers polled likely to buy an iPhone 5

Changewave and 451 Research poll consumers and find all-time high demand for iPhone 5

Apple is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings report tomorrow, but the company is already getting some good news as research published Monday by Changewave and 451 Research shows that consumer demand for the much anticipated “iPhone 5” is outpacing every other iPhone released to date.  And no one even knows what the damn thing is yet.

Analysts expect the next generation “iPhone 5” to be released later this year, and there’s been much talk about what it will include.  Word on the street is that Apple may actually be planning to deviate from the classic iPhone design to offer an iPhone with a larger screen.  It is also expected to run on the new iOS 6 and feature an upgraded camera.

In a survey of 4,000 consumers, respondents were asked how likely they were to buy the new device when it comes out.  Nearly a third of all respondents (31%) said they were “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to purchase an iPhone 5 when it becomes available.  (To break that down, 14% said they were very likely while 17% said they were somewhat likely.) 

By comparison, Changewave researchers asked consumers the same exact question about the upcoming iPhone 4S back in October 2011, and some 21% said they were “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to purchase the device.  And the iPhone 4S is considered the most successful iPhone release in Apple’s history, selling four million units in its first weekend (the iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units in its first weekend).

While previous iPhones have been released in the summer, the iPhone 4S was launched in late 2011, and rumor has it that the next generation iPhone will also have a fourth quarter release date. 

Changewave researchers believe smartphone sales overall will spike to an all-time high this fall, and along with Apple, Samsung is also expected to see a jump in sales.  Samsung will be releasing its Galaxy S III smartphone this month, and it includes a dual-core processor, 4.8-inch high-resolution display, and an 8-megapixel camera.  Of the 4,000 consumers polled, 9% said they were “somewhat” or “very likely” to purchase the new Galaxy S III when it’s released.  Of those who say they plan on buying a smartphone within the next 90 days, 19% say they plan on buying a Samsung phone.

In October 2011, Samsung announced it had sold 28 million handsets in the previous quarter, while Apple sold 17 million.

Researchers say no other manufacturer is expected to benefit from the surge in smartphone sales this fall.