2009 to be a painful year for ad-based media

JP Morgan analysts give their forecasts for digital and old-line media

We're all expecting this year to be pretty sobering when it comes to advertising sales. But apparently it's going to be so bad that JPMorgan analysts anticipate that the CEOs of companies they follow will stay pretty mum about this year's prospects.

How bad will it be? JPMorgan analysts held a call this week to discuss their view on the media landscape:

Here are the highlights:

2009 will be a painful year for all advertising-based media. Most of the trade organization execs pointed to extremely low visibility, and did not offer advertising growth (decline) forecasts for 2009. Much of the commentary focused on longer-term growth prospects, and efforts that each industry is taking to position itself for growth upon economic recovery.

No change to JPM industry ad forecasts, but bias is likely to the downside. The speakers pointed to a weak start to 2009, but were optimistic on some recovery in H2. We continue to forecast steep ad declines across Newspapers, TV, and Radio, and relative outperformance from Outdoor and Internet advertising. But ongoing troubles in key ad categories such as auto, financials, and retail are creating problems for nearly all media companies.

Soon-to-be-announced Federal Stimulus plan could be a positive development. We agree that consumer-based media will potentially benefit from improvement in the underlying economy, especially as consumer spending stabilizes. However, corporate marketing budgets are likely to be pressured for the foreseeable future, and local ad spending remains quite soft.

New technologies and digital initiatives remain a top priority. Each trade organization chief highlighted examples of how “traditional” media companies are adapting to a digital world via new websites, PDAs and mobile applications, e-newsletters, social networking, place-based video, etc. Such ancillary revenue streams are growing rapidly but still contribute a minority of revenues (v. “traditional” advertising).

We’re expecting ample negative newsflow during upcoming Q4 earnings reports. Magazine/TV operator Meredith kicked off the Q4,08 earnings season last week with very cautious commentary on Q1,09—including TV station ad pacings down 40% (with auto -70%). We expect most media companies to post weak quarterly results, and provide disappointing guidance.

Our sense is that many management teams will not provide 2009 outlooks.

(Image source: mnewmanphoto.com)