A look back at 2014 tech predictions: how did we do?

Some thought bitcoin would soar, that Glass would reign and I predicted that Snapchat would be sold

Predictions are hard. Seriously, it takes a lot of  guts to put yourself out there and be bold enough to say, "Here is what is going to happen." Because, just 12 months later, anyone can go and find those predictions and see how wrong you were. And then they can write a whole article about it. But who would do such a thing?

Ahem.

Yeah... so, here is what people were predicting to happen over the last 12 months, and how accurate they were (to be fair I included myself in here as well).

Instagram would reign over Facebook

One prediction, made by Ross Simmonds of Social Media Today, was that Instagram would overtake its parent company Facebook as the premiere social network.

"There are thousands of power users on Instagram who influence culture and the buying behaviours of their networks," he wrote. "Identifying these people and paying to have them post about your brand is something that will become very common place in the upcoming year."

That one  always seemed like a pretty big long shot. And while Instagram did hit a milestone of 300 million users earlier this month, it still can’t compare to Facebook's 1.2 billion. 

The mobile Web would finally die

Another big prediction came from Dan Rowinski, Mobile Editor at ReadWrite: that 2014 would see the death of the mobile Web.

"No more websites crippled with horrible 'mobile.yourawfulwebsite.com' URLs. No more reading janky websites that display way too much fine print or omit crucial features when viewed on your smartphone or tablet," he said.

Those sites will be gone, and will be replaced with ones that are able to adapt to different screen sizes.

This one did not  entirely come true, but the Mobile web did drop even further, as time spent on native apps jumped to 86%, while time on mobile Web dropped to just 14%. That is two hours and 42 minutes a day, compared to one 22 minutes.

So the mobile Web continued to die, even if it still has some life in it. This one will eventually come true, just not yet.

2014 would be the biggest year for VCs since 2007

Foundation Capital General Partner Paul Holland told Forbes that he predicted that VC firms would have their best year in terms of fundraising since 2007.

“Over 200 VC firms will go to market next year, including some of the biggest names in the business and with the recent flurry of high value exits, they will receive a much more welcome reception from institutional investors than any time in the last seven years,” he said.

So did that actually come true? Well, it's hard to say yet, but it is likely.

Through the first three quarters  of 2014, venture capital firms have raised $23.7 million from 186 funds,according to the National Venture Capital Association. The best year after 2007 was 2008, which saw $25 million raised from 213 funds. So it is very likely that, yes, 2014 will be the best year for VCs since 2007, but we know how good for a few more months. 

Glass would be the must-have gadget

Dominic Basulto of the Washington Post predicted that Google Glass would become a hit. 

“It’s a safe bet that if Google Glass is cool enough for the runway models of DVF and the fashion spreads of Vogue, it’s also cool enough for the mainstream tech consumer who’s looking to move beyond the smartphone,” he wrote.

A report from BI Intelligence even predicted that over 800,000 Google Glass units would be sold this year.

Sadly, all of those turned out to be false. The actual number, which Google has not release, is more likely in the 250,000 range.

I should point out that not only did I think Glass would be  a home run, but that smartwatches would "crash and burn." Instead, Apple went ahead and unveiled its own smartwatch. And you just know that people are going to buy it.

Bitcoin's price would soar

There were many predictions about bitcoin and its eventual price. Scott Campbell of The Telegraph predicted that it would reach $2,000 by the end of 2014. Some went even higher than that, predicting $10,000, which was moonshot if I ever heard one.

So what did happen? The price of bitcoin peaked at around $1,000 in January, then drop for good. 

It's current price is roughly $312. So just a tad less than some had hoped.

How did I do?

Last year I made a few predictions of my own as well. Let's see how I did. 

For example, I thought that Snapchat would take the buyout in 2014.

Here is what I wrote at the time: "The company may have just hired away Emily White, who had been in charge of Instagram's advertising program, to be its new COO, but I also believe that monetization will be harder than they think. Advertising will be especially tricky, considering that images only stay on the screen for a matter of seconds, and in-app purchases can only take the company so far.

Now that Snapchat has raised more money, and upped its valuation, I am predicting that Facebook will come back again to purchase the service, and that, this time, Snapchat will say yes."

So, that was pretty freaking wrong.

Instead, Snapchat figured out monetization. Snapchat teamed up with Square, allowing users to send money to each other through its text feature. It also launched its first ads in October, putting them in the Recent Updates section and allowing users to not have to look at them if they don't want to. 

Plus, the company is rumored to be raising a new funding round at a $10 billion valuation,

I also predicted that that 2014 would be the year that Square finally went ahead with its IPO. Two months later, the company scuttled those plans due to problems with revenue. Namely, the company is not profitable. 

Finally, I predicted that Amazon would follow Netflix's lead and gain some Emmy nominations. Instead, it got zero.

Three strikes and I am out of here.

(Image source: franchiserelationships.com)