Examination of MorningStar data to identify critical factors that contributed to better valuations
In a recent examination of publicly traded stocks using MorningStar
screens, we noticed that even in these depressed market conditions there
are at least three dozen healthy domestic stocks with market
capitalizations greater than $500 million trading at a greater than 6
price to sales (P/S). Google had a much better P/S multiple than Yahoo;
Visa topped out MasterCard; Alnylam topped out all other siRNA
therapeutics companies; Dolby Technologies topped out its peers like DTS
Inc., First Solar topped out other semiconductor companies; RedHat
topped out its open source counterparts; QualComm topped out other
wireless equipment manufacturers. What makes these companies tick? Our
first observation was the market shares. Companies with the largest
market share and with proven barriers to entry tended to be rewarded
more. Holding unsurpassable intellectual property was also greatly
rewarded.
Google has a 62% market share in the paid-search market
compared to Yahoo, which has just 13% - a distant second. Visa's logos
are carried on about 63% of the worldwide credit and debit cards, while
MasterCard's share is only 31%. Alnylam holds the rights to nobel-prize
winning technology and licenses that to several siRNA therapeutics
companies. Alnylam's IP allows the firm to create an entirely new class
of therapeutics for tough-to-treat diseases.Similarly, Dolby's
technologies continue to be included as new digital broadcasting
standards are rolled out internationally.First Solar is the undisputed
leader in cost-per-watt solar cell production with its competitors a
distant second.Red Hat has more experience distributing and supporting
Linux than any other company does. Again, in the IP leadership area,
Qualcomm's patents are central to the CDMA technology for 3G mobile
communications.
It is important to note that strong market
leadership and unsurpassable barriers to entry - be it branding or
holding central intellectual property that is sessential for the growth
and development of a whole market - is what attracts P/S multiples in
excess of 6.0. Unless your business model is designed to make your
company the overhwelming leader in market share or IP rights, there is
very little chance that the market will value your firm at 6.0+ P/S
multiple.
When we come across small companies that request us to
classify them under this 6.0+ leadership category, we calmly tell them
what it takes to get there. When starting out, it is important for
entrepreneurs to understand their return on investment 8 to 10 years
down the line, so they can structure their external financing
requirements in a way that optimizes their RoI. Entrepreneurs need to
have a good understanding of what their exit multiples are likely to be
to align the financial risk/reward system better within the company.