Do Mobile Apps have any Future?!

Opportunities & threats to mobile applications

With Mobile App makers mushrooming all over the place, it sounds like thats the way to go. But would these really have any long lasting future? Lets look at opportunities & threats to arrive at a better viewpoint.

Opportunities:

1. Medium has Potential

Google thinks at some stage its mobile advertising revenue would surpass revenue from its traditional PC based online advertising. Sure! As mobile phones become smarter & smarter and simultaneously cheaper & cheaper, people would find ever increasing power & convenience in using them.

No doubt, mobile phones would become an omnipresent medium to access information, gain knowledge, communicate, work & perform. Great opportunity for app makers.

2. Interface demands Simplicity

Mobile devices have smaller interface as compared to PCs & by definition this would always be so. Human eyes & hands can only handle a certain size with ease. One won't ever be able to click an micro icon (Micron!! oh... I am contributing to language now) unless sufficiently aided with technology.

Smaller interface demands less clutter & more simplicity. So one can't ask users to open "File Explorer", go to "C:/Program Files/Microsoft Office" & right click, select "Properties"...

This makes up a case for apps. Apps need to be sitting their simply in order to make things easy for the users.

3. Low Cost of Participation

Threats:

1. Needle in the Haystack

Low Cost of Participation, listed as an opportunity, has its flip side as a threat. Low entry barrier for mobile application means plethora of applications out there, making discovery of right app so much difficult for the users. Any application that gains traction would see hundreds of clones coming up in no time, some doing a better job, with price as well as value, than the original. A needle in the haystack is no better than hay.

2. Lack of Standardisation

Presence of multiple mainstream platforms makes it impossible for the app makers to treat mobile app market homogeneously. App maker is forced either to target a single particular platform & ignore others or sweat out & replicate effort to support all major platforms one by one. Platform independent technology like Java provides limited capabilities & fails to exploit any native platform to its full potential. 

3. Platform makers doing Vertical Integration

Call it Vertical Integration or whetever else, but the makers of Android, iOS, Symbian, etc would always find it easy & lucrative to incorporate mainstream applications as part of the platform. Any mobile application that emerges as a truly standard mobile feature, would risk getting wiped out by the platform itself.

4. The Flood in the Rear

The biggest threat for mobile applications, though it may sound insane, is Internet. This particular phenomenon in the background is so powerful that even though initially it may encourage mobile apps to come up & ride its wave, ultimately it will drown most of them. Just in the same way, PC apps are being challenged by the software as a service & cloud paradigms, mobile apps would end up giving way to thin micro-browser interface to powerful services across the line.

Does it make sense then to jump in & join the hectic rush?

Well, opinion would obviously be divided. But my personal answer would be, NO. Focus instead on the cloud, build strong micro-browser (& even email) interfaces to services in the cloud & wait for mobile apps to perish.

Niraj @ Alphonso.in