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CEO , NewsFutures, Inc (Owner)
http://www.newsfutures.com
Baltimore, Maryland, United States
Business owner
Member since: March 30, 2008
Emile is CEO of NewsFutures, Inc, a U.S.-based company that designs and runs public and private prediction markets, including the NewsFutures Exchange and Bet2Give (America's first charity-based prediction market). Clients include large corporations, media organizations, and government agencies in the United States, Europe, Asia and Oceania.
As a leading pioneer in the field, Emile has lectured widely on the business value of prediction markets across the globe: from San Francisco to Hong Kong, by way of Washington DC and Davos... He has been quoted in Time, Newsweek, BusinessWeek, The New York Times, Wired, InfoWorld, Nature, CBS News, and in various other newspapers and magazines in North America and Europe. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Prediction Markets and a guest lecturer at the Wharton Business School.
Emile has co-authored with some of the field's leading researchers a landmark experimental study directly comparing the prediction accuracy of real-money and play-money prediction markets: Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? (Electronic Markets, 14-3, Fall 2004)
Before founding NewsFutures with Maurice Balick in 2000, Emile worked as an artificial intelligence engineer for Ilog, a software company specializing in providing AI-based business solutions, and later co-authored two award-winning CD-Roms drawing on the collective wisdom of 18 world-class scientists, including 8 Nobel Prize winners: The Challenge of the Universe and Secrets of the Mind. He is an alumni of Carnegie Mellon, where he earned both a B.S. in computer science and a Ph.D. in cognitive psychology.
| - 1991 Carnegie Mellon , PHD |
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Curtis is clueless. The wisdom of crowds is a well documented fact, as long as you draw enough diversity of opinion and provide a well thought-out opinion aggregation mechanism, like a prediction market.
Roizen is clueless too. Prediction markets have been around for years (in NewsFutures' case, over 7 years) and the demand for them just keeps accelerating. If well designed, people get deeply and durably engaged. These are the 4Rs of why people keep coming back:
1) Rewards: Cash, prizes, etc. Get paid for being right before everybody else.
2) Relevance: If you care about an issue, if you have an opinion about it, prediction markets let you in on what others think and let you measure exactly how right or wrong you are.
3) Recognition: Dominating the leaderboard is a social reward par excellence.
4) Relationships: When you're betting directly against other people who care deeply about the same issues, you can't help build rich relationships.
As for the business model, it's part advertising, part sponsored market research, and part implementing the system inside companies to make better business-relevant forecasts.
In conclusion, allow me to share a basic principle all of us in this "wisdom of crowds" industry adhere to: "Don't trust the opinions of a couple of talking-heads on TV who are just trying to look smart - who could blame them? - even while talking about things they don't know anything about." That's not even crowd wisdom, that's just common sense.
Cheers!
on Vator Box on predictive markets and college video networks (March 31, 2008)
Posted: March 30, 2008
(136 views)
Posted: March 30, 2008
(73 views)
Posted: March 30, 2008
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Posted: March 30, 2008
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