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Facebook worth between $10-$15 billion? Microsoft may think so

Financial trends and news by John Shinal
September 24, 2007 | last edited July 10, 2008 | Comments (4)
Short URL: http://vator.tv/n/5c

The value of a premiere social networking site became clearer this week after a media report said Microsoft has held talks with Facebook about investing between $300 million and $500 million for as much as a 5% stake in the startup. That would value Facebook at up to $10 billion, although CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his advisers may hold out for a valuation as high as $15 billion, according to the report on WSJ.com.  

 

 Facebook logo

As lofty as that valuation range is, it's in the same ballpark as the roughly $12 billion that News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch thought his MySpace unit was worth when the media mogul reportedly offered to swap it for a 25% stake in Yahoo earlier this year.   That makes the $580 million News Corp. paid for MySpace in 2005 a steal.

 

Facebook's investors may soon get their own home run valuation. While MySpace is still larger as measured by unique users and page views, Facebook is growing faster and has gained a lot of momentum after opening up its platform to application developers.

The WSJ.com reported that Google might also be interested in Facebook. If true, it wouldn't be the first time it's competed with Microsoft for a hot Internet property. Microsoft paid $6 billion for Web ad firm aQuantive earlier this year after losing a $3.1 billion bidding war for DoubleClick to Google. Microsoft and Facebook -- both founded by Harvard drop-outs -- have an existing agreement under which Microsoft is paying around $200 million over three years to place ads on Facebook's site.

 

All this illustrates the rich valuations investors are applying to Web sites that have no profits but are parlaying user-generated content into explosive growth.

The fun question now is whether Zuckerberg will soon join Microsoft's Bill Gates as a dropout-turned-billionaire tech entrepreneur.

 

Question: Who do you think is worth more, Facebook or MySpace? 


Comments

Thom Calandra
Thom Calandra, on September 24, 2007

John, this article is nice and tight ... and bright ... but it needs a takeaway line, something more meaningful than which entity o is worth more, or billionaire clubs.

I think it might be something along the lines of -- So what do media and software moguls see in the world's largest social networking sites? The same thing that eBay saw in Skype: no revenue but enough eyeballs to dot a path to the moon and back. Now that brings back memories: eyeballs.

thomcalandra.com


Jimmy Wu
Jimmy Wu, on September 24, 2007

I'm a bit surprised the company is valuing itself at such a high multiple at this stage because it would serve future employees and prospective public market investors to leave some money on the table, especially since the business model is still young and rapidly evolving. An amazing story, in any case.


Comment_gbg
Bambi Francisco Roizen, on September 24, 2007

Facebook's distributed application strategy seems to have ignited its growth and value as a utility to more than just college students. Its traffic is certainly surging faster than MySpace. But MySpace has a $900 million partnership with Google, and is estimated to generate some $500 million this year. Facebook, on the other hand, is estimated to generate some $150 million this year. At $10 billion in market valuation, that's a 66 times revenue multiple.


Mo Kakwan
Mo Kakwan, on September 24, 2007

Myspace may be making the larger revenue but Facebook seems to be blazing a trail beyond traditional advertising business models. I think what interests the likes of Yahoo!, Microsoft and Google more then the open API platform and the "eyeballs", is that Facebook is moving towards a complete system beyond the confines of the present day social network. Facebook's quiet acquisition of Parakey [1] hints at their larger aspirations.

That being said, Facebook and the worth of all their future plans might be moot in light of future competition with Google in the same space. With Google creating their Uber API [2] connecting all their properties and every social network under the sun, facebook will be doomed to a distant second place in the shadow of the 400 pound gorrilla of the modern era. Isn't this what folks were saying years ago about Microsoft?

Nevertheless 2nd place is still worth quite a bit. I think Facebook is worth more than Myspace in the long run. Myspace seems poised to sizzle out. They're too slow in a space that's changing so fast. Only recently did Myspace go mobile [3]. Facebook has had mobile features since before January.

[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parakey
[2] http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/09/21/google-to-out-open-facebook-on-november-5/
[3] http://pulse2.com/2007/09/23/mobile-myspace-officially-launches/

@Bambi - I think the Facebook applications are cool but they're more clutter then function thus far. How serious can someone take you with apps that show zombies, fish tanks and a talking alpaca on your profile page? I almost feel like I need two profiles. One that's my professional profile and one that my college buddies can comment and draw break dancing stick figures on my graffiti wall. And the black hat tactics that many of the app developers are utilizing are killing the experience. I’m getting fed up of getting massive application invites. The application platform seems like it’ll doom them to a juvenile market and we’re all getting older.


Comment_gbg
Bambi Francisco Roizen, on September 25, 2007

One person who always has a solid opinion about the Internet and new media is Mark Cuban. This is what he said to me about Facebook's valuation being at or north of $10 billion, as well as Microsoft's involvement. "I can see it. Microsoft could do some amazing things with Facebook. It could easily be worth that much to them if they have any ability to integrate the Facebook API into Micrososft's Web products. Could you imagine what Live would be like with full integration of Facebook users information via the API ? What Microsoft could do with their ad serving technology if Facebook users had an option to allow information from their profiles to be used to select the right ad when a FB user was at a site that Micorosft served ads for? It could take ad serving to an entire new level."


Therese Abella
Therese Abella, on September 25, 2007

I am not an expert unlike the majority of people who have commented so this is coming from a young mind. Well not necessarily a YOUNG mind, just a younger person =)

In this day and age who doesn't have a Myspace or a Facebook? And if you don't have one you have to know somebody who does. We live in a generation of social networking which becomes more apparent when it becomes easier to contact a friend by leaving a comment on their Myspace or leaving a wall post on Facebook than it is to actually call them using your cell phone.

But even then we have mobile devices such as HELIO (who refuses to be called a phone company) that caters around the use of Myspace, being "the first and only mobile service specifically built for mobile Myspace access" according to Tom from Myspace.

You know, Tom from Myspace. Who doesn't know Tom from Myspace? Often thought of as Myspace mascot's, Tom Anderson (also known as "Tom from Myspace"), is easily identified for his default picture wearing a plain white tee along with his "Welcome to Myspace" smile and (for Myspace users) was the first friend on your list. Who would've known that this average lookin' Joe would become one of the most recognized faces of 2007 and an internet celebrity over night, even having shirts made in his commemoration with statements such as "I Heart Tom" and "Tom is my Homeboy"! Craziness.

There often seems to be a divide on Myspace and Facebook users. Either you're a Myspace person or a Facebook person, with some stuck in the middle liking both for different reasons and different uses. It's all in the matter of preference and lifestyle.

Because Facebook initially launched as a site catering to network students at Universities, many college students found it easier to connect with people who were around the same age and attended the same school with them and found it convenient to still keep in contact with friends from other universities who were also on the site. It also made the dorm life much easier and freshman year of college (for me) a lot easier to adjust too. But the problem with this was that if you weren't at a university or didn't have a valid college account you were denied of a membership which strayed many people away to register on Myspace, which accepts any and all people regardless of which school or which profession one belonged to. As long as you were of age you were able to have your own space (profile) on the site.

But that's all different now ever since Facebook opened it's doors to everyone else. I've noticed that it's beginning to attract an older crowd, a more career oriented kind of crowd, something you don't see too much of on Myspace.

I was actually the first student at my university to register on Facebook and am an avid user of Myspace. I'm familiar with both and personally enjoy Myspace better. Facebook was a good tool my freshman year of college as far as getting to know people and seeing who was in my classes but Myspace seems to be my life's phonebook/yearbook with people that I've known from all different paths, times, places, and experiences in my life. Also, being a musician, I feel that it is a lot more convenient to have Myspace where you can network and listen to many other musicians. Plus I have more personal friends on Myspace, whereas I have more classmates on Facebook.

Myspace also has become a multimedia haven of user videos, new movies, and ESPECIALLY music. Many formerly unsigned artists have been discovered because of Myspace while other famous artists use it as a tool to keep in touch with fans and receive feedback. Nowadays you'll hear many artists give out the URL to their Myspace page at award shows, performances, and other events telling fans to add them.

If you're into graphic design and making things look pretty then Myspace is the place to be. Myspace allows you to customize and create profiles that can be as unique as the individual that you are. You can even put music and videos on your Myspace page instead of clicking a link to it. Facebook's interface is boring, although you can customize information that appears on your profile. If you prefer a more basic web format (although cluttery) and would rather stay away from dealing with HTML or other computer codes then Facebook's for you.

Although Facebook is continuing to grow I still think Myspace is worth more. I think Facebook's generating a lot more traffic because it's the "new" thing and people want to be a part of it, but I can see it dwindling down like Friendster did (before they decided to revamp it's site to be more visually appealing) because people will get tired of the same look and get bored. People nowadays have short interest and attention spans and are always looking for the next best thing. I also think that the number of teenagers and young adult users may go down as more people who are older continue to register because in their eyes (hence "their" eyes) it may no longer be seen as "cool" or "hip" anymore. No longer a getaway or an "online hangout" like Myspace is popularized to be.

With the launch of International Myspace people from all over the world can now access the site to accommodate cultural differences in spelling and conventions. It is becoming a worldwide phenomenon.

Myspace has more media and entertainment appeal, that's for sure, and is more marketable when it comes to pop culture. It also helps that they have network names like MTV to collaborate with for events such as presidential dialogue's that target Americans (especially the younger generation) and get them thinking about the elections, also giving them a chance to interact and participate through chat and featured videos.

When it comes down to it, I think Myspace is definitely worth more and will longer prevail.

Long live Myspace!
(Definitely a Myspace person =)

And there goes my 2 cents..


Comment_gbg
Bambi Francisco Roizen, on September 26, 2007

Great comment from the Y-generation. Thanks Therese.


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